868
FXUS65 KVEF 230506
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1006 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm temperatures with afternoon highs well above normal will
  continue through Thursday.

* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms arrive late
  tomorrow across the Western Mojave Desert and lift north into
  southern Nevada Tuesday night into Wednesday.

* Dry and windy conditions return Friday into the weekend,
  returning elevated fire danger to the region and bringing cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Mostly clear skies and warm temperatures dominate the region this
afternoon with forecast highs expected to top our several degrees
above normal. Warm temperatures will continue through Thursday
before heights begin to decline sharply Friday into the weekend.
The hottest conditions are expected Tuesday before a modest
moisture increase arrives Wednesday and Thursday which will shave
a couple degrees off the temperature expectations.

Speaking of moisture, a weak shortwave trough off the coast of
the Baja will lift north on Tuesday and pull a plume of deeper
mid-level moisture into the Mojave Desert by Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Latest convective allowing guidance favors some weak
shower activity across the Western Mojave Desert near the Morongo
Basin Tuesday afternoon, and that activity develops northward into
southern Nevada by Wednesday morning. Instability will be quite
limited so not expecting any of the activity to be especially
robust, but dry low levels will favor locally gusty winds and some
dry lightning risk if cloud development becomes deep enough to
support lightning activity. Moisture will begin to shift east by
late Wednesday with precipitation chances by Thursday limited to
far eastern Mohave County and Lincoln County.

Thereafter, a large a deep trough will develop across the Pacific
Northwest and drop southward through the weekend. This pattern
shift will result in dry and gusty conditions returning to much of
the region, and given the dry vegetation across the area,
enhanced fire danger is a concern. In addition to the gusty winds,
heights falling well below normal will result in cooling temps,
with weekend high temperatures topping out several degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds overnight and Tuesday morning, giving way to southerly breezes
in the afternoon. Initially, may have a southeast component, but
should turn south-southwest around 21-22z as gusts strengthen.
Confidence is growing in the arrival of vicinity convection Tuesday
evening, though exact timing and strength remain a bit uncertain.
Anticipating a brief increase in southwest winds as the activity
moves into the valley, followed by more erratic wind behavior once
the activity moves over/past. Latest guidance suggests vicinity
convection may linger through the night and Wednesday morning, but
confidence in this is lower. Cloud bases expected to remain at or
above 10kft. Temps exceed 100F between 18z and 04z.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds tonight give
way to southerly breezes across most of the region on Tuesday with
gusts generally 15-25 knots. Expecting convection to develop late in
the afternoon across San Bernardino County, moving northeast
throughout the evening. Still some uncertainty in the exact timing
and magnitude of this activity, but best chances are along and
southeast of the I-15 corridor. Main concerns with this activity
will be gusty, erratic outflow winds. Convection may linger in these
areas Tuesday night. Cloud bases remain at or above 10kft with smoke
lingering in Lincoln County.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office